(* The following is n imagined a reconstruction based on documented accounts of Netanyahu's Bible study gatherings.)

It is a mild late autumn day and the yellow Jerusalem stone of the Prime Minister’s angular residence on Balfour street is bathed in sunlight. In an inner courtyard, dusted by the same gentle light, Benjamin Netanyahu is speaking to a small group of guests.

“The trouble with having illustrious predecessors…” he says from the comfort of a deeply upholstered wingback chair “…is that their ideas tend to be good ones”.

A murmur of amusement ripples through his audience. They are a mixed bunch. Prominent rabbis are mixed in with leading academics, young archaeologists and a clutch of awe-struck linguists. Next to the Prime Minister sits his wife Sara; their two sons occupy simple chairs set to one side. Bibles – in various colours and sizes, worn to varying degrees – rest unopened in the hands or on the laps of each.

The lined faces and grey beards of the elderly rabbis together with the kippas worn tipped back on their heads supply an unmistakable tone which sits uneasily amid the Islamic architecture and ornamentation of the sunlit courtyard.

“And I confess…” the Prime Minister continues, “…that holding these Bible study meetings was the idea of my most famous predecessor…” he pauses, respectfully, “…David Ben Gurion1.i”

He turns to look at his wife.

“Indeed, it was Sara’s father, Schmuel Ben Arzi, who was part of the reason for Ben Gurion’s first meeting.” He smiles around at the faces, familiar, friendly faces. Reaches across and takes his wife’s hand. “Schmuel was one heck of a guy, you know. He served in the Irgun and then in the Haganah2 in the difficult times before independence. He was a teacher, a scholar and a writer…all of these things.” The Prime Minister smiles at his wife, “He passed all that energy on to his daughter, as I know to my cost.”

Another ripple of polite laughter. “And…” the Prime Minister adds, turning to his sons, “…coached my son to victory in the international Bible contest.”

There is a smattering of applause and Avner Netanyahu grins, bows his head in acknowledgement.

“Ben Gurion was so impressed with Schmuel’s knowledge that he invited him to join the first of these meetings, and we are proud…I am really proud to hold this event in his memory.ii” He squeezes his wife’s hand, smiles quickly at her and then turns back.

“You know, I believe that there is no Jewish existence without the Bible. Indeed, there is no Jewish future without the Bible. That’s the first and highest foundation on which we stand. So today, for what I am sure for many of you is a welcome change,” Netanyahu grins, “I am going to relinquish the role of chief talker in favour of your collected wisdom.” He pauses, shifts in his chair. “But before I do, I wanted to float an idea that perhaps might help drive our study.” He leans forward, an experienced orator pulling his audience in.

“Now, it seems appropriate during Sukkot3, with all of its focus on the fragility of life, that we discuss how precarious is our own existence, the existence of the State of Israel.” He pauses, gazes about the room, fixing the eyes of his audience one after another.

“In 2048, it will be the 100th anniversary of our country’s founding.” He nods gently, smiles at his audience. It will be a fine day of great celebrations.”

Text Box 2, Textbox“But our existence is by no means assured. Our survival as a land, as a nation, preoccupies me, preoccupies my government daily. We make great efforts to defend our survival, the safety of this land. But we are not the first to face these problems. Cast your minds back…” he motions expansively with his hands “…back over 2,100 years. To when the Hasmonean empire ruled over Judaea and much of the surrounding lands.” The Prime Minister lowers his head slightly, keen to make his point. He raises his left hand, forefinger and thumb touching, reaches towards his audience in search of understanding.

“You know what? The Hasmonean kingdom lasted for barely a century before it collapsed into the arms of Herod the Great.” He lets his words sink in. After a moment he resumes. “We have to deal with the threat of Hamas, and of Hezbollah and the many other groups with links to an Iran which seeks our destruction. For peace to reign, our enemies must recognise the State of Israel, the State of the Jewish people.”

“Until we have solutions to these problems, we cannot rest. If we want to celebrate our 100th birthday, we must learn from history; we have to learn how to deal with the threats to our survival.iii”

The Prime Minister pauses again. The room is quiet. Someone clears his throat, another shifts uneasily.

Netanyahu allows a sudden smile. “Anyway, welcome to you all. I think that this is a good time for a prayer. Rabbi.” He gestures to a heavily bearded man slumped uncomfortably in a chair in a far corner, “Rabbi, would you care to do the honours?”

So what?

It is an interesting thing when a leader brings forth an example of historical precedent and then proceeds to ignore its wisdom.

Historians record that the Jewish Hasmonean dynasty made three critical errors.

Firstly, rather than try to accommodate the diversity of non-Jewish populations, the Hasmoneans annexed territory and forced mass political and religious conversion. The result was an internal ‘fifth column’ which attacked and distracted the State, leading to the bitter civil wars that weakened it.

Secondly, the descendants of the first Hasmonean ruler and founder of the dynasty, Simon Maccabee, failed to recognise the importance of the separation of powers in Judaism, between State and the Church. They soon became despotic tyrants, sowing dissatisfaction and disunity until eventually the war broke out that would lead to the dynasty’s demise.

Finally, the Hasmonean rulers depended too heavily on a single supportive superpower, Rome. Instead of building a more stable, multi-party alliance with other powerful actors in the interests of balance. The Hasmonean eventually found themselves unable to defend themselves from so many threats and Rome was forced to intervene, making the Hasmonean empire a client state and precipitating its eventual downfall.iv

Sound familiar?

These are surprising parallels with today’s situation in the Middle East. But the terms “annexation”, “ethnic cleansing”, “terror attacks” and “US influence” barely scratch the surface of an immensely complex problem which has its roots in different centuries, different geographies, different religions and much deep-seated anger.

The variables are many.

The historic persecution of the Jews drives Israelis’ commitment to maintaining and protecting their homeland at any cost. The lessons of history to which Prime Minister Netanyahu refers, of the 1948 foundation of the State of Israel and the brutal fighting which accompanied and followed it, likely offer a powerful precedent for today’s leaders.

A matching, millennias-long persecution of Shi’a Muslims by the world’s vastly more numerous Sunni majority underpins Iran’s antipathy towards Israel’s role in US support for Gulf Sunni nations.

Decades of persecution of stateless Palestinians rendered desperate by poverty, disrespect and betrayal motivates brutal terror attacks specifically targeting men, women and children in Israel.

Behind all these issues stands the powerful driver of human memory. For Palestinians, it takes the form of the massacres that drove them from their homes and ancestral lands into exile, brutalities perpetrated by Jewish gangs intent on establishing a homeland for themselves.

For Israelis, it is the painful memory of sons and daughters lost in perpetual defensive wars against Arab neighbours, during two intifadas and as a result of ongoing terrorist attacks ever since.

There is also the woefully ill-judged intervention of Great Power agendas over more than a century, leaving deep physical marks which still resonate today.

Alongside all this is the insidious impact of the human element; a Jewish nation entirely populated by refugees from repression, pogrom and holocaust. A nation with a persecution complex a mile high and a willingness to fight for their land built partly on necessity and partly on an obstinate refusal to give up on the hard-won success hauled from the reluctant, barren desert of Palestine. And now a nation riven with disunity. Torn between liberalism and conservatism and “between those who share the national burden and those who believe that Torah study is necessary due to the very existence of Israel.v”

This dilemma is mirrored by a Palestinian nation driven to desperate lengths by decade upon decade of destitution under the boot of an occupier seemingly intent on their elimination. A race with literally nowhere else to go. A race of whom some three million now live in exile. A race betrayed by the failure of the Oslo Accords and Israel’s cavalier refusal to deliver its side of the bargain.

Towering above it all, is the most powerful and malevolent dynamic of all – religious imperative. The Jews have their Promised Land, while the Muslims have the holy sites where perceived occupation by modern day crusaders is part of a Western plot to deprive Arabs of their rightful heritage.

The explosion of brutal, unforgivable violence that commenced with the attacks of 7 October 2023 was, perhaps, inevitable.

For nearly a decade now, the power balance has been shifting against Israel. Shifting behind the veil of a carefully calculated détente of tit-for-tat cross-border attacks calibrated by both sides to demonstrate deterrence and relevance. While Palestinians and Israelis alike try to get on with their lives.

Perhaps most notably, since its defeat of Daesh in Iraq and acquiring energy independence, the US has blown increasingly cold on its role in the Middle East. In consequence of successive US withdrawals – whether full or in part – from Iraq, Syria and Afghanistan, Gulf states are now questioning whether alliances with Israel against the northern Iranian hegemon still offer what they once did. They have begun to seek new, more reliable arrangements to guarantee their futures.

These developments have effectively left Iran free to conduct its hegemonic meddling, ramping up the power of its “Axis of Resistance” proxies across the Middle East to a level which now threatens western military assets on the ground as well as the shipping routes on which it depends.

A similar unaccustomed freedom has handed Lebanese Hezbollah – with Iran’s open-handed support – the keys to Israel’s destruction. Hezbollah, regarded as the world’s most heavily armed non-state actor, controls a rocket arsenal of sufficient power and accuracy to drive an explosive stake right through Israel’s heart.

While these changes have already restricted Israel’s regional freedom of manoeuvre, the growing sway of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia and its seemingly inexorable progress towards a unified Islam in the Gulf looks likely to restrict Israel still further.

Finally, there is the looming prospect of a nuclear-armed Iran. And the elimination of Israel’s one remaining trump card.

What is a nation to do? A nation used to taking aggressive, angry – successful – action in response to threats. A nation prepared to make almost any sacrifice to defend the homeland it fought so hard to establish. This is the critical question now, and one for which nobody seems to have the answer.

What is clear, however, is that, for Israel at least, things could not continue to trend in this direction. And what now threatens is an extension of this catastrophic war in the Middle East while Israel works towards removing any chance of a future threat to its existence. It is a war with an unparalleled potential to escalate to nuclear levels.